The Hurricane Job Market

Here we are just a few weeks away from the first of June and if you care to put any degree of validity to the experts, for a full six months, through November 30, our concerns and fears will be heightened with predictions that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be active and very possibly severe.

AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi forecasts 16-18 tropical storms, 15 of which will hit the Atlantic coastline or the Gulf of Mexico. Of seven landfalls, five will be hurricanes and two or three will be major threats to the U.S.

As Bastardi had predicted, the 2009 hurricane season brought 11 tropical depressions and only nine developed into tropical storms, the lowest number since 1997.

Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, who has made seasonal hurricane predictions since 1984, foresees a 64% chance of landfall along the Atlantic coastline, and a 40% likelihood that Florida will be affected. Respectively, historical averages are 52%, 31% and 30%.

The forecast release this past December concludes there will be 11-16 named tropical storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes, all of which are considerably higher than statistical data would indicate. Updates will be issued April 8, June 2 and August 4.

During a discussion with a new acquaintance, Linda and I touched upon the affects that a major hurricane would have on the Florida economy. I made reference to the $4.5 billion in assets in the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, which, by its own analysis, will be seriously short of covering potential claims that could exceed $28 billion in a severe season. Since she’s not a homeowner, I discounted the importance of mentioning to Linda the additional ‘assessments’ that would be placed on insurance policies. She had other thoughts on her mind.

To go back a couple of steps, the conversation actually began with Linda relating events in her life that began shortly after graduating from high school, where she had been an academically excellent student, an accomplished athlete and socially popular.

Linda had intentions to attend the University of Florida but an unplanned pregnancy left her an unwed mother and kept her from joining her friends on the path to higher education. She vacated her home when she realized the live-in boyfriend/father was smoking crack. This was the first of three homes her well-to-do father would buy for her over the next ten years.

As Linda explained other circumstances in her life, I had to agree with her self-appraisal that she’s a smart person who doesn’t make smart decisions. Her second relationship began with a hopeful marriage but her bipolar condition contributed to her filing for divorce from a husband who had become a successful businessman. She had full custody of the two boys and a third son who was fathered by a second husband – another bad choice with drugs again the cause for divorce.

Nearly 30 years old now, her three boys are 4, 9 and 11 years old. She no longer has custody of any. The oldest lives with Lisa’s mother. The middle child lives with the successful ex-husband. The youngest one is in a foster home in Wisconsin.

After first being under-employed then eventually unemployed for the past three years, Linda and her current husband, Jacob, moved to Wisconsin with a guaranteed job making minimum wage. They regretted the move – she was jailed for beating the crap out of Jacob when he blocked her ability to access all banking and credit card accounts as a result of a heated exchange of words that were incited by her sister-in-law, whose call to 911 placed Linda in police custody. Jacob surrendered the baby to foster care because he wasn’t able to hold on to the job.

Things worsened when they moved back to Florida. Still with no job, Jacob was forced sell his prescribed painkillers just to make ends meet. Still not enough for the two of them to get by on, he’s now faced with three to five years in prison for drug trafficking with a fraudulent prescription. Linda now works in an out-of-the-way strip club. Just to accumulate enough cash to post bail, I assure you.

Chances are none of these events would have taken place if construction work hadn’t bottomed out as a result of the recession. Jacob had been earning nearly $20/hour as a roofer. Even though Jacob hadn’t fathered any of the boys, the family of five had been very happy. They called him “daddy”.

Thinking of the situations Lisa and Jacob endured, I suggested that even a mild hurricane season could put thousands, of construction laborers back to work. The 15.1% unemployment rate in Hernando County would decrease, if only temporarily.

Linda agreed. Neither of us liked the idea but…

[Note: The events are factual. The names are fictional.]